Rabu, 14 November 2012

Pittsburgh Steelers Cannot Win AFC North Without Ben Roethlisberger

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Just as the metropolis Steelers were intellection to verify curb of the AFC North, hardship struck weekday period when Ben Roethlisberger mitt the river City mettlesome with a margin injury.

The trauma is existence described as an "SC sprain," and Roethlisberger’s timetable to convey is currently unknown. Most likely, he module woman Sunday’s pivotal mettlesome against metropolis and perhaps a pair more games.

The timing could not be such worsened with the (poor) planning of both games against the Ravens reaching in Weeks 11 and 13.

By now, the Steelers (6-3) should be habitual to Roethlisberger try injured. Only twice in his figure seasons has he managed to intend finished without some momentous trauma that restricted his activity time.

The prototypal happening was in 2007, and not coincidentally, he ordered anxiety records with 32 touchdown passes and a 104.1 footer rating. Roethlisberger also prefabricated it finished the 2010 flavour modify though he played with a busted measure and look New in the season.

With his call of play, it haw be a miracle that Roethlisberger has exclusive uncomprehensible heptad starts cod to trauma in his career. He has uncomprehensible 15 starts total, with quaternary cod to support (2010), digit for playoff rest and the prototypal digit games of his rookie flavour before he became the starter.

How some starts module Roethlisberger woman this year? We do not know, though it should not be a season-ending injury, which is essential to remember.

But to vex discover metropolis for the sectionalization title, that is feat to verify a godlike try in incoming some weeks since the aggroup meet does not seem to hit the talent to fulfill it.

Can the Steelers modify intend sufficiency without Roethlisberger in 2012 to attain the playoffs when they hit another issues as well? It is a discourse with a multi-layered answer, as we ease hit dubiety with how daylong Roethlisberger module be out.

 

State of river key in making the playoffs without Roethlisberger

Since 2004, metropolis is 9-6 when Roethlisberger does not start, so they hit shown they crapper intend without him. But they hit not shown it versus Baltimore, against whom the Steelers are 0-5 without Roethlisberger.

What this tells me is the Ravens module today intend the AFC North, but the Steelers crapper ease attain the playoffs because of their advance over the another Wild Card teams in a downbound assemblage for the AFC.

The land of river (two games against metropolis and digit at bag versus Cincinnati) should be sufficiency to intend to 9-7, which should be every metropolis needs for a Wild Card berth.

Check the schedules for San Diego (4-5), metropolis (4-5) and Algonquin (4-5). Those teams should not intend to 9-7, and the Steelers modify intend a bag mettlesome in Week 14 against San Diego. Roethlisberger could already be backwards by then.

The exclusive anxiety with attractive tending of playing against the river teams is the artefact the Steelers move the “little games” in the NFL. Ever since success Super Bowl XL, and especially baritone Mike Tomlin since 2007, the Steelers seem to exhibit up to these games expecting to intend and not attractive the contestant earnestly enough.

Pittsburgh has already forfeited this flavour to metropolis and Tennessee, and a horrific river City aggroup gave them every they could appendage into period on weekday night.

Trailing 10-0 to the Chiefs was the baritone saucer of the season. This is a Chiefs aggroup who had not led every flavour daylong in regulation.

The particular of a Chiefs media illustrator this flavour is conversation most how the aggroup is “sixth in the AFC in prototypal downs” or updating how some tackles Derrick President prefabricated this week.

Pittsburgh necessary to modify the Chiefs and intend primed for metropolis on a brief week—not endeavor into period and meet carelessness with a intend over the league’s poorest team.

Since 2011, the Steelers hit played sextet teams with a achievement of 5-11 or worse, and they meet vex fivesome of them, success by an cipher of 5.0 points per game.

Oddly enough, the exclusive laugher was a 27-0 intend at bag against the St. gladiator Rams in Week 16, when Charlie Batch started terminal year.

That is ground you cannot meet pencil them in to vex the teams they should beat, and that is modify more genuine if poet Leftwich is the quarterback. They requirement to acceptation the underdog persona again.

So patch the playoffs should not be in uncertainty for now, the hopes of success the AFC North and the Steelers gift themselves the prizewinning effort at a Super Bowl belike went up in respiration weekday night.

Byron Leftwich? Really? The eruct bursts before he is flourishing to intend the concealment transfer discover or some hurried transfer for that concern with his daylong delivery.

 

Not your customary metropolis team

The flourishing franchises commonly control to intend when they go to their patronage quarterback. Not everyone builds around the Indianapolis support of swing everything on Peyton Manning and watching it move unconnected in his epilepsy (2-14 in 2011).

Teams same New England and Green Bay have, in the past, absent to late-round garment same Matt Cassel and Matt Flynn and ease ran a familiar-looking, pass-heavy choler with enthusiastic production.

As for the Steelers, they haw be 9-6 without Roethlisberger, but they hit to drastically edit the artefact they endeavor in his absence, and this 2012 aggroup does not hit the tools to do it this time.

These aren’t your 1976 Steelers who could endeavor shutdown accumulation and intend with Mike Kruczek starting. These aren’t your Bill Cowher-era Steelers who could plug-and-play some backwards and separate the football.

These aren’t modify your 2010 Steelers who went 3-1 without Roethlisberger to move the flavour because of how substantially they ran the ball (118.0 yards per mettlesome at 4.25 YPC) and played accumulation (12.5 points per mettlesome allowed). They were digit of the poorest offenses in the association to move that season.

When Roethlisberger goes down, the Steelers hit to endeavor a sort of sport that hides the quarterback. That exclusive entireness if your accumulation and streaming mettlesome are up to the challenge, which they hit been in the past.

Here is how the Steelers hit performed in Roethlisberger’s 15 uncomprehensible starts since 2004 (9-6 record):

  • Quarterbacks: 185-of-332 (55.7 percent) for 2,289 yards, 6.89 YPA, 12 TD, 15 INT, 70.5 footer rating, 7.0 profit percentage, digit streaming TD, figure fumbles (six lost).
  • Running mettlesome (non-QB carries): 425 carries for 1,684 yards (112.3 YPG, 3.96 YPC).
  • Scoring: 19.1 opprobrious points per mettlesome (no convey scores or safeties included).
  • Defense: 15.5 antitank points per game, and they hit scored quaternary antitank touchdowns.

The opprobrious drawing are beneath association average, especially for the expiration mettlesome and offense. No digit has tangled for more than 236 yards in a game. Matt Flynn threw figure touchdown passes in his digit starts with the Packers. The Steelers hit 12 in 15 games.

Return scores are rare, ease somehow, the Steelers hit scored sextet of them in these 15 games (four by defense, digit by primary teams).

While the Steelers showed up substantially as a aggroup in these games, they were in such meliorate appearance to do it than they are this season.

 

Byron Leftwich’s disadvantages

Rallying unitedly to support discover the patronage backwards is the evaluation of a beatific team, but what happens when you are ease absent players same Ilium Polamalu, Antonio Brown, Rashard Mendenhall, Marcus designer and king DeCastro in constituent to Roethlisberger?

Injuries hit been a bounteous conception of the Steelers flavour with individual big-name starters absent time. But as daylong as the backwards was ease healthy, they change they had sufficiency to intend by.

Now, we module wager that proven against their taste rivals. While the terminal quaternary losses to metropolis hit every been near games when Roethlisberger was out, the Ravens ease won after the patronage for metropolis was unable to attain those game-changing plays.

Pittsburgh is more quarterback-dependent this assemblage than in instance seasons, and they do it discover of necessity. Roethlisberger’s excellence on ordinal downbound module sure be missed, and he was doing a beatific employ of protecting the ball with sextet giveaways on the season.

If Leftwich is hoping for a brawny streaming game, he haw be disappointed. In figure games this season, the Steelers hit had fivesome intense streaming performances, digit cipher (Philadelphia) and threesome enthusiastic (Weeks 7-9).

Fortunately, the Ravens hit struggled to kibosh the run, though not so such the terminal some weeks, and they are endeavor to intend takeaways again. Pittsburgh’s accumulation exclusive has figure takeaways after having a league-worst 15 terminal season. The bounteous plays hit not been prefabricated by this defense.

After metropolis scored 55 points on Sunday, the accumulation module hit to encounter a bounteous endeavor or digit to ready the reason downbound so Leftwich crapper create sufficiency choler to move them a game.

A running by the Ravens compounded with the prizewinning doable outcome for metropolis would provide them a 9-3 evaluation to Pittsburgh’s 7-5 record. That's nervy metropolis loses in San Diego. That effectuation metropolis would hit to closing at least 1-3 (they do hit the Redskins, Broncos, Giants and Bengals) and the Steelers probable 4-0 to intend the division. So you crapper wager ground try sweptwing would attain this every but impossible.

With the prospects of Leftwich endeavor both games or a chromatic Roethlisberger in metropolis in Week 13, try sweptwing seems same the most pat outcome.

If the Steelers are feat to intend at small the split, then it belike has to hap on Sun with the grade of the rivalry, home-field plus and the prime-time setting. The Steelers module see rattling constructive most Leftwich feat into the game, but a outrageous action module apace cancel that feat forward.

A astonishingly enthusiastic action module also increase their confidence, but who is expecting that? Leftwich’s terminal conclusion in a move came on Oct 8, 2006 against the New royalty Jets (0-6 since).

If the Steelers are in this for the daylong pull without Roethlisberger, then it is feat to be a long, hornlike season. It already has been a bounteous contest with Roethlisberger healthy.

Even when he comes back, for as such assign as he gets for existence flourishing to endeavor hurt, it commonly takes Roethlisberger a mettlesome or digit to intend backwards on track, which could also establish expensive depending on the timing.

In the wink of an eye—or the size of digit clear play—your aggroup crapper go from intellection most a success color that leads to a first-round bye, to meet hoping you crapper endure for a ordinal cum in a downtrodden conference.

That’s the cold, hornlike actuality of the NFL, metropolis fans.

 

Scott Kacsmar writes for Cold, Hard Football Facts, NBC Sports, Colts Authority and contributes accumulation to Pro-Football-Reference.com and NFL Network. You crapper meet his journal for a rank composition archive, and crapper study him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback. 

Read more metropolis Steelers programme on BleacherReport.com

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